Spending did NOT slow down…we will pass $1B in IE spend since LABOR DAY before the end of the week…
$220,489,926.01 in IEs over the last week vs $167,284,992.97 in IE spend the week before, 32% week over week increase
$973,391,592.97 in IEs since Labor Day
$1,650,674,448.12 in IEs his cycle
Biggest Expenditures – Largest single outlays over the last week
$5,080,216.38 by Senate Majority PAC against Dr. Oz in PA
$4,103,986.13 by Georgia Honor against Walker in GA
$3,914,161.99 by Senate Leadership Fund against Sen. Warnock in GA
$3,779,072.85 by Senate Majority PAC against Masters in AZ
$3,378,526.58 by Senate Leadership Fund for Bolduc in NH
House
$1,999,987.50 by Progress Pinellas supporting Eric Lynn in FL-13
$1,401,197.93 by Congressional Leadership Fund against Sean Patrick Maloney in NY17
$1,338,561.00 by House Majority PAC opposing Mark Robertson in NV-1
$1,305,958.11 by Congressional Leadership Fund against Dina Titus in NV-1
$1,304,604.36 by Congressional Leadership Fund against Susie Lee in NV-3
Money Talks…what do the numbers tell us
- NC Senate is tighter than expected. The race saw $10.5M last week with SLF spending $4,694,119.99 against Beasley, 5th highest total spend by race
- PA Senate is insanity, $29.7M dropped in the last week. We will pass $100M in IE spend in the race just since LABOR DAY, this week.
- AZ Senate race is real, SMP spent $3.7M against Masters last week. You don’t do that in a race that is in the bag. Masters got badly outspent in the last week.
- NH Senate race is real. its seen $18.4M since 10/1 and $7.1M last week. SLF continues to spend to push Bolduc numbers up and a number of D groups are spending to push him down.
- In a very weird dynamic that continues, no one is spending money for or against an incumbent, Sen. Hassan.
- CO Senate still doesn’t look like it has come online. It did get $4.1M in IE this week and has seen $11.4M in IE since 10/1, but the way the board is set, it looks like a niche set of players rather than a true battle ground.
- Republicans were out spent for the first-time last week in total (across House and Senate races)
- $110.1M in favor of Dem candidates vs. $105.5M in favor of Rep. candidates
- The delta was in the House, Senate spend was very evenly split although Republicans were outspent in PA, GA, AZ, and NV senate races.
Wave Height Measurement
Watch GA-2.This race has been a bit below the radar but its seen $1.6M since10/1 (not a huge amount) but its who’s spending that matters, DCCC and House Majority PAC. Republicans are not spending here. This is another example of these groups not having excess cash to spread around to make an incumbent feelgood, if they are spending here its because they need to. As an east coast race, it will be decided early. If Rep Bishop losses, the rest of the night will be a wipeout for Democrats.
Interesting Groups Spend
$954,732.73 by American Leadership PAC, the Rep. Jim Banks aligned group
$7,160,501.42 by Americans for Prosperity
$3,697,947.45 by Make American Great Again, Inc.
$5,860,311.89 by League of Conservation Voters
$2,499,703.14 by Vote Vets
$2,637,165.50 American Policy Fund
Senate Top Spend
$122,411,374.41
House Top Spend
$98,078,551.60
These numbers are being generated by the 527tracker,a data platform developed by Perspective Strategies that aggregates, analyzes, and alerts to all federal Super PAC spending in real time. If these types of numbers or analysis are important to you, or if you are on a campaign and need real-time spending alerts, go check out the dashboard. It is free with no CC required thru Election Day. www.527tracker.com
As always ,this information intended to provide a broader perspective what is influencing DC with the hope of allowing for better hedging and decision making. These numbers are from the last week unless otherwise noted.
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